Happy Forgings LtdNSE:HAPPYFORGE
Current view Q4 2026
Making pricier, precision truck and tractor parts is lifting profits to record highs; a signed Rs 950 cr order book fuels growth. FY27 is spending-heavy, but management reliably delivers.
Latest exchange filings last 5 · 5 after Q4 2026
- 11 Sep ’26Announcement under Regulation 30 (LODR)-Allotment of ESOP / ESPS 11 Sep ↗
- 11 Aug ’26Announcement under Regulation 30 (LODR)-Earnings Call Transcript 11 Aug ↗
- 11 Aug ’26Announcement under Regulation 30 (LODR)-Analyst / Investor Meet - Intimation 11 Aug ↗
- 5 Aug ’26Announcement under Regulation 30 (LODR)-Newspaper Publication 5 Aug ↗
- 5 Aug ’26Audio recording of Q1 FY2026 earnings conference call held August 5, 2026 available on website. ↗
Exchange filings, with the company's own one-line summary, read off the same page as the figures. Screener publishes only the most recent few, so this is the last 5 — not everything filed since your note, and a quiet-looking list is not proof of a quiet quarter. A filing is marked new when it is dated after the end of the quarter your note covers. Not scored, and not a judgement — a routine repayment notice and a takeover sit in the same list.
AI concall report · Q4 2026
The full earnings-call read behind this view — what management promised, what they delivered, and the earning trigger.
Growth Q4 2026
| Metric | This year vs lastYoY · vs Q4 2025 | vs the quarter beforeQoQ, sequential · vs Q3 2026 | 3-year yearly average3Y CAGR · compounded | 5-year yearly average5Y CAGR · compounded |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sales | ▲ +20.4% | +8.4% | +8.9% | +21.4% |
| Operating profit | ▲ +30.4% | +10.8% | +13.1% | +24.9% |
| EPS | ▲ +23.4% | +5.8% | +11.1% | −49.4% |
| PAT | ▲ +23.5% | +6.3% | — | — |
Tinted rows drive the Tier. Tier = the weaker of YoY Sales and YoY PAT growth. Here the weaker is Sales at +20.4%, which is ≥ 20% → Tier 1.
QoQ is sequential, not a trend. For most Indian companies the March quarter is seasonally the largest, so a June-quarter fall against it is a calendar effect. Only the YoY column feeds the Tier.
Multibagger potential
Weak44/100
Growing, but too slowly to re-price. Profit per share grew 11% a year. A big re-pricing usually needs more than 15% a year, so the score is capped no matter how cheap it looks.
₹1,997 → ₹3,993 needs the P/E at 91× — it is 62× today, and has ranged 27× to 67× over the last 5 years. The rest would come from earnings growing as they have.
What you pay for its profitlog scale · 5-year range
Tripling needs 137× — never traded above 67× in 5 years.
Re-rated already, on growth that doesn't fully back it.
How this is calculated
This is arithmetic, not a forecast — Return = ΔEPS × ΔMultiple. It says what would have to be true, not how likely it is, and "earnings keep growing at this rate for three more years" is the assumption doing the most work. This is a mid-cap at ₹20,311 cr, so the odds of a re-rate are not fighting its own size.
Band capped: growth of 11.1% is below the 15% bar a re-rate needs.
Growth rate used: 11.1% — the weakest of EPS / Sales / Op-profit from 3-year EPS CAGR. Latest quarter reads 23%.
How it compares with its rivals Capital Goods · 6 of 19 listed
It earns 18% on its capital, fifth of 6, and it is the third most expensive of the 6 shown.
| Company | Price | P/E | Size | ROCE | Profitlast qtr | Saleslast qtr |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Happy Forgings | ₹2,157 | 62.2× | ₹20,362 Cr | 18.0% | +39.2% | +27.0% |
| AIA Engineering | ₹3,957 | 29.1× | ₹36,925 Cr | 21.1% | −1.3% | +12.4% |
| PTC Industries | ₹23,008 | 274.6× | ₹34,494 Cr | 8.6% | +465.7% | +97.4% |
| Balu Forge | ₹520 | 23.6× | ₹6,315 Cr | 22.7% | +15.9% | +28.9% |
| Steelcast | ₹320 | 35.7× | ₹3,237 Cr | 32.3% | +19.3% | +17.0% |
| Amic Forging | ₹2,296 | 87.0× | ₹2,652 Cr | 25.2% | +23.7% | +30.4% |
Screener's own peer group, from the request already made for the industry P/E. It serves the industry's largest names by market cap, not companies of a similar size, so treat this as context rather than a like-for-like table; this company is always shown. On a phone the price, size and sales columns are dropped rather than pushed off the edge. Not part of the score.
Business quality to Jun 2026
| Are the margins widening? | broadly flat | operating margin 30% → 31% over 3 years |
|---|---|---|
| Did the profit turn into cash? | most of it arrived as cash | 114% last year, 92% over three · free cash flow −₹16 cr, positive in 2 of 5 years |
| Is the growth borrowed? | lightly borrowed | ₹330 cr — 0.16× its own equity (was 0.12×) |
| Is it being collected? | customers are paying faster | 93 days to collect, down 17 in a year · cash cycle 193 days |
| Who has been buying? | the promoters have held steady | promoters 78.5% (−0.1 in a year), 78.6% → 78.5% over 2.5 years · FIIs 1.9% (−0.3) · DIIs 15.5% (−1.4) · shareholders 1,34,839 → 64,341 |
| What does it earn on its capital? | earns a fair return on its capital | ROCE 18.0% · ROE 15.0% |
Fetched from the filings, not typed — and deliberately not part of the score. These are the questions the score cannot ask: it reads growth, price and trend, so a company can score well while its profit never becomes cash. Weigh these beside the note, not against the number.
Screener's own checklist not mine, not the score
Against it
- Stock is trading at 9.51 times its book value
- Dividend payout has been low at 12.9% of profits over last 3 years
Generated by screener.in from a fixed checklist — not written by me and not an input to the score. It is here as a second machine opinion to weigh against the note; where it disagrees with the view above, the note is the considered one.