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◆ConcernTier 1

KRN Heat Exchanger and Refrigeration LtdNSE:KRN

Capital Goods · ₹9,402 Cr market cap · covered for 1 quarter since Q4 2026

Current view Q4 2026

Makes cooling coils for AC and data centres; sales jumped 38%. But the big new factory is only 15-20% used, profit margins slipped, and it may sell new shares, hurting existing owners.

Latest exchange filings last 5 · 5 after Q4 2026

Exchange filings, with the company's own one-line summary, read off the same page as the figures. Screener publishes only the most recent few, so this is the last 5 — not everything filed since your note, and a quiet-looking list is not proof of a quiet quarter. A filing is marked new when it is dated after the end of the quarter your note covers. Not scored, and not a judgement — a routine repayment notice and a takeover sit in the same list.

AI concall report · Q4 2026

The full earnings-call read behind this view — what management promised, what they delivered, and the earning trigger.

✨ Read the report ↗

Growth Q4 2026

Metric This year vs lastYoY · vs Q4 2025 vs the quarter beforeQoQ, sequential · vs Q3 2026 3-year yearly average3Y CAGR · compounded 5-year yearly average5Y CAGR · compounded
Sales▲ +54.2%+48.5%+40.1%+54.8%
Operating profit▼ −10.0%+5.9%+24.7%+75.2%
EPS▲ +22.6%+11.5%+16.0%+15.4%
PAT▲ +21.4%+13.3%——

Tinted rows drive the Tier. Tier = the weaker of YoY Sales and YoY PAT growth. Here the weaker is PAT at +21.4%, which is ≥ 20% → Tier 1.

QoQ is sequential, not a trend. For most Indian companies the March quarter is seasonally the largest, so a June-quarter fall against it is a calendar effect. Only the YoY column feeds the Tier.

Multibagger potential Average52/100

Growing fast — and the market has noticed. Profit per share grew 16% a year, and buyers now pay more for each rupee of it than they did a year ago. Some of the re-pricing has already happened.

Doubling needs a price-tag it has never reached

₹1,387 → ₹2,775 needs the P/E at 155× — it is 121× today, and has ranged 49× to 136× over the last 5 years. The rest would come from earnings growing as they have.

If this keeps up for 3 more years ×0.2 -79% — profit growing 16% a year, and buyers paying 16× for it

What you pay for its profitlog scale · 5-year range

49×5-year low 92×usual level 121×today 136×5-year high 155×to double 232×to triple

Tripling needs 232× — never traded above 136× in 5 years.

Target capped at 16× — its 92× five-year average came from near-zero earnings.

The Multibaggerearnings climbing and buyers already paying more for them⚠ absolute stretch
Is it cheap right now?P/E 121× is 1.32× its own 5-year average of 92× — above it; forward PEG 6.50 — expensive for its growth 2/25
Has the market paid for this growth yet?ΔMultiple ×1.44 a year (×1.44 over the year) — re-rate underway — late 2/15
Is the growth real, or flattered?EPS fully backed by sales; QoQ holding 30/30
What does it earn on its own money?earns 13% on its own book — fair 5/10
Is the price trend agreeing?above 40W, below the shorter EMAs 13/20
Price vs its book value 15.2×P/B — ₹91 of book value per share
Price vs next year’s profit 104×forward P/E — what an entry pays now
Price over the last year ×1.67earnings ×1.16, price-tag ×1.44
At what price this changes
Average from ₹1,191 to ₹5,545 · now ₹1,387
below ₹1,177 → Weak

At ₹184 the price-tag on its earnings reaches the 16× it is being projected toward — the point where being cheap against that yardstick is used up.

Re-rated already, on growth that doesn't fully back it.

How this is calculated

This is arithmetic, not a forecast — Return = ΔEPS × ΔMultiple. It says what would have to be true, not how likely it is, and "earnings keep growing at this rate for three more years" is the assumption doing the most work. This is a mid-cap at ₹9,402 cr, so the odds of a re-rate are not fighting its own size.

Why the target is capped at 16×. This company averaged 92× over five years, but a multiple that high comes from near-zero earnings rather than from what buyers chose to pay — projecting a return to it would price in the collapse, not the recovery. 16× is what a 16% grower supports.

Growth rate used: 16.0% — the weakest of EPS / Sales / Op-profit from 3-year EPS CAGR. Latest quarter reads 23%.

How it compares with its rivals Capital Goods · 6 of 34 listed

It earns 16% on its capital, fifth of 6, and it is the most expensive of those shown.

Company PriceP/ESizeROCE Profitlast qtr Saleslast qtr
KRN Heat Exchan ₹1,430 126.0× ₹9,361 Cr 16.1% +19.0% +59.1%
HBL Engineering ₹760 26.3× ₹21,070 Cr 59.3% −25.1% +6.0%
Inox India ₹2,089 73.7× ₹18,964 Cr 33.5% −5.0% +9.2%
Esab India ₹5,638 42.0× ₹8,679 Cr 64.7% +37.1% +19.6%
Subros ₹701 26.6× ₹4,571 Cr 19.2% +1.7% +17.5%
Harsha Engg Intl ₹442 26.0× ₹4,025 Cr 13.0% −1.4% +25.2%

Screener's own peer group, from the request already made for the industry P/E. It serves the industry's largest names by market cap, not companies of a similar size, so treat this as context rather than a like-for-like table; this company is always shown. On a phone the price, size and sales columns are dropped rather than pushed off the edge. Not part of the score.

Business quality to Jun 2026

Are the margins widening? no — margins have been squeezed operating margin 19% → 14% over 2.8 years
Did the profit turn into cash? very little of it arrived as cash 39% last year, 35% over three · free cash flow ₹14 cr, positive in 3 of 5 years
Is the growth borrowed? lightly borrowed ₹91 cr — 0.16× its own equity (was 0.07×)
Is it being collected? customers are taking longer to pay 102 days to collect, up 23 in a year · cash cycle 112 days
Who has been buying? the promoters have been selling promoters 65.7% (−5.1 in a year), 70.8% → 65.7% over 21 months · FIIs 8.9% (+6.5) · DIIs 8.3% (+2.3) · shareholders 87,558 → 91,234
What does it earn on its capital? earns a fair return on its capital ROCE 16.1% · ROE 13.4%

Fetched from the filings, not typed — and deliberately not part of the score. These are the questions the score cannot ask: it reads growth, price and trend, so a company can score well while its profit never becomes cash. Weigh these beside the note, not against the number.

Screener's own checklist not mine, not the score

In its favour

  • Company is expected to give good quarter
  • Company has delivered good profit growth of 95.9% CAGR over last 5 years
  • Company's working capital requirements have reduced from 118 days to 86.4 days

Against it

  • Stock is trading at 15.6 times its book value
  • Though the company is reporting repeated profits, it is not paying out dividend
  • Promoter holding has decreased over last quarter: -5.10%
  • Debtor days have increased from 80.9 to 102 days.

Generated by screener.in from a fixed checklist — not written by me and not an input to the score. It is here as a second machine opinion to weigh against the note; where it disagrees with the view above, the note is the considered one.